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Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone

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Title

Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone

Subject

Description

We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score.

Date

2018-02

Citation

Fitzgerald, F., Wing, K., Naveed, A., Gbessay, M., Ross, J., Checchi, F....Yeung, S. 2018. Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 24(2), 311-319. https://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid2402.171018.

Abstract

We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score. We collected data on all children <13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014-March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%-90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.

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